Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.65
No39%
ours 2.53
All matches
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Lech Poznan — Wisla Krakow, Ekstraklasa
Poland, Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznan
3.4WLLWW
Wisla Krakow
2.1WWDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
53%25%23%
Lech Poznan53%Draw25%Wisla Krakow23%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lech Poznan1.89—
XDraw4.08—
2Wisla Krakow4.41—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLech PoznanWisla KrakowCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners16.09.712.8
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lech PoznanWisla Krakow
KKS Lech Poznań 53%, Wisła Kraków 23%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
KKS Lech Poznań 53%Draw 25%Wisła Kraków 23%
1st half
44 · 35 · 21
2nd half
32 · 39 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 4.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lech Poznan
- homeRadomiak Radom5:1
- awayCrystal Palace0:4
- awayGornik Zabrze1:2
- homeRakow1:0
- homeJagiellonia2:1
Wisla Krakow
- homeSlask Wroclaw2:1
- homeJagiellonia2:0
- awayKorona Kielce1:1
- homeWieczysta Krakow2:0
- awayPogon Szczecin2:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Gornik Zabrze971116:822
Gornik Zabrze971116:8222
Legia Warsaw954019:819
Legia Warsaw954019:8193Lech Poznan861117:719
Lech Poznan861117:7194Wisla Krakow952217:1217
Wisla Krakow952217:12175
Pogon Szczecin843112:615
Pogon Szczecin843112:6156
Korona Kielce943212:1015
Korona Kielce943212:1015Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.