Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.69
No41%
ours 2.46
All matches
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Lech Poznan — Sunderland, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
Lech Poznan
3.4WLLWW
Sunderland
2.4LWLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
30%25%45%
Lech Poznan30%Draw25%Sunderland45%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lech Poznan3.34—
XDraw3.95—
2Sunderland2.24—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLech PoznanSunderlandCombined
Goals scored1.000.671.67
Conceded1.171.172.34
Corners12.011.311.7
Cards1.33.04.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lech PoznanSunderland
KKS Lech Poznań 30%, Sunderland AFC 45%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
KKS Lech Poznań 30%Draw 25%Sunderland AFC 45%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lech Poznan
- homeRadomiak Radom5:1
- awayCrystal Palace0:4
- awayGornik Zabrze1:2
- homeRakow1:0
- homeJagiellonia2:1
Sunderland
- awayManchester City3:5
- homeAZ Alkmaar1:0
- homeArsenal0:2
- awayBrentford1:1
- homeFulham1:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Salzburg54109:313
Salzburg54109:3136
CSKA Sofia83239:1111
CSKA Sofia83239:11117Lech Poznan531115:610
Lech Poznan531115:6108
Jagiellonia531110:510
Jagiellonia531110:5109
Omonia53117:410
Omonia53117:41010
OFI33007:09
OFI33007:0911
Maccabi Tel Aviv43019:49
Maccabi Tel Aviv43019:4912
Qarabag42206:08
Qarabag42206:0813
PAOK42027:66
PAOK42027:6614
Hradec Kralove42024:36
Hradec Kralove42024:3615
Hajduk Split42025:66
Hajduk Split42025:6616
Universitatea Craiova41214:45
Universitatea Craiova41214:4517
Egnatia41127:64
Egnatia41127:6418
Paphos41127:64
Paphos41127:6419
Lillestrom31113:34
Lillestrom31113:3420
Avan Academy31113:54
Avan Academy31113:5421
Iberia 199941123:74
Iberia 199941123:7422
Thun41127:124
Thun41127:12423
Sheriff41121:64
Sheriff41121:6424
Juventus11005:03
Juventus11005:0325
Crystal Palace11004:03
Crystal Palace11004:0326
Sparta Prague11004:13
Sparta Prague11004:1327
Union Saint-Gilloise11003:03
Union Saint-Gilloise11003:0328
Bayer Leverkusen11002:03
Bayer Leverkusen11002:0329
Bournemouth11002:13
Bournemouth11002:1330
Lyon11002:13
Lyon11002:1331
Olympiakos11002:13
Olympiakos11002:1332
Torreense11002:13
Torreense11002:1333Sunderland11001:03
Sunderland11001:0334
Red Star Belgrade21014:53
Red Star Belgrade21014:5335
Sint-Truiden21013:43
Sint-Truiden21013:43Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.