Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.43
All matches
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Kilmarnock — Motherwell, Premiership
Scotland, Premiership
Kilmarnock
1.2DWDLL
Motherwell
2.1LLLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
33%24%43%
Kilmarnock33%Draw24%Motherwell43%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Kilmarnock3.02—
XDraw4.11—
2Motherwell2.35—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricKilmarnockMotherwellCombined
Goals scored0.331.171.50
Conceded1.001.672.67
Corners12.212.612.4
Cards2.21.23.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
KilmarnockMotherwell
Kilmarnock FC 33%, Motherwell FC 43%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Kilmarnock FC 33%Draw 24%Motherwell FC 43%
1st half
31 · 35 · 34
2nd half
29 · 36 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Away or draw
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Kilmarnock
- homeHearts1:1
- awayHibernian1:0
- awayAberdeen0:0
- homeSt. Mirren0:1
- homeDundee United0:4
Motherwell
- awayDundee1:2
- homeAberdeen0:4
- awayRangers0:1
- homeDundee United3:0
- awaySt. Mirren3:3
Head to head
- 01/24/26Premiership0:4
- 11/22/25Premiership1:3
- 08/30/25Premiership2:2
- 05/14/25Premiership0:3
- 04/05/25Premiership2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Aberdeen72237:88
Aberdeen72237:888
Dundee United72239:118
Dundee United72239:1189Motherwell72239:118
Motherwell72239:11810
Hibernian72148:117
Hibernian72148:11711
Falkirk71336:96
Falkirk71336:9612Kilmarnock71246:155
Kilmarnock71246:155Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.