Llapi — Drita, Superleague

Kosovo, SuperleagueOctober 17 at 12:00 PM

Llapi

1.6LLLWL

Drita

2.5LWDLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

27%26%47%

Llapi27%Draw26%Drita47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Llapi27%3.68—

XDraw26%3.84—

2Drita47%2.14—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1702 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1700 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1687 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LlapiDrita

KF Llapi Podujevë 27%, KF Drita 47%. The safest is “KF Drita or draw” at 73%.

KF Llapi Podujevë 27%Draw 26%KF Drita 47%

1st half

25 · 54 · 22

2nd half

17 · 38 · 45

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total shots on target: Under 9.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLlapiDritaCombined

Goals scored0.830.331.16

Conceded1.830.502.33

Corners6.78.47.5

Cards0.00.00.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.