Ballkani — Prishtina, Superleague

Kosovo, SuperleagueOctober 19 at 12:00 PM

Ballkani

2.2LWLDL

Prishtina

2.3DWWWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

40%26%34%

Ballkani40%Draw26%Prishtina34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Ballkani40%2.53—

XDraw26%3.78—

2Prishtina34%2.94—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.11

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1747 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1745 matches

Cards

This market opens with Premium.

71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1736 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

BallkaniPrishtina

KF Ballkani 40%, FC Prishtina 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

KF Ballkani 40%Draw 26%FC Prishtina 34%

1st half

29 · 53 · 18

2nd half

24 · 39 · 37

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBallkaniPrishtinaCombined

Goals scored0.671.672.34

Conceded0.670.331.00

Corners6.77.06.8

Cards0.00.00.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.