Kawasaki Frontale — Nagoya Grampus, J1 League

Japan, J1 LeagueOctober 11 at 07:00 AM

Kawasaki Frontale

DWWLW

—

Nagoya Grampus

LLLLW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

57%22%20%

Kawasaki Frontale57%Draw22%Nagoya Grampus20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Kawasaki Frontale57%1.75—

XDraw22%4.46—

2Nagoya Grampus20%4.91—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.60

No38%

ours 2.66

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKawasaki FrontaleNagoya GrampusCombined

Goals scored2.171.003.17

Conceded1.501.833.33

Corners8.37.78.0

Cards1.71.53.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.