Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.18
All matches
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Karbalaa — Al Gharraf, Premier League
Iraq, Premier League
Karbalaa
0.8LLLWL
Al Gharraf
1.5DLLLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
28%29%43%
Karbalaa28%Draw29%Al Gharraf43%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Karbalaa3.60—
XDraw3.40—
2Al Gharraf2.34—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos
Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.
Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Sign upConfident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1031 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1030 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1023 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
KarbalaaAl Gharraf
Karbalaa FC 28%, Al Gharraf FC 43%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Karbalaa FC 28%Draw 29%Al Gharraf FC 43%
1st half
27 · 40 · 33
2nd half
32 · 37 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricKarbalaaAl GharrafCombined
Goals scored0.670.331.00
Conceded1.671.333.00
Corners8.09.28.6
Cards0.40.40.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Form and context
Karbalaa
- homeErbil0:3
- awayAl Naft1:2
- homeAl Quwa Al Jawiya2:3
- homeAl Karkh1:0
- awayAl Karma0:2
Al Gharraf
- homeAl Jolan0:0
- awayAl Zawraa0:2
- awayDiyala1:3
- homeAl Shorta1:2
- awayAl Kahrabaa0:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
17
Al Karkh821510:147
Al Karkh821510:14718
Al Kahrabaa81436:107
Al Kahrabaa81436:10719Al Gharraf91354:126
Al Gharraf91354:12620Karbalaa81256:155
Karbalaa81256:155Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.