Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.77
No43%
ours 2.31
All matches
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Gent — AGF Aarhus, UEFA Europa Conference League
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League
Gent
2.3WDWWW
AGF Aarhus
2.3DLDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%25%26%
Gent48%Draw25%AGF Aarhus26%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Gent2.07—
XDraw3.94—
2AGF Aarhus3.80—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricGentAGF AarhusCombined
Goals scored1.500.832.33
Conceded0.501.672.17
Corners9.88.29.0
Cards2.21.84.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
GentAGF Aarhus
KAA Gent 48%, Aarhus Gymnastikforening 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
KAA Gent 48%Draw 25%Aarhus Gymnastikforening 26%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Gent
- homeStandard Liege2:1
- awayGenk1:1
- awayCercle Brugge3:0
- homeOH Leuven1:0
- homeClub Brugge2:1
AGF Aarhus
- awayHorsens2:2
- awayNordsjaelland0:2
- homeSilkeborg2:2
- homeMidtjylland0:2
- awayRanders1:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
21
Motherwell631210:810
Motherwell631210:81022
Austria Vienna63128:610
Austria Vienna63128:61023Gent62405:310
Gent62405:31024
Rijeka63125:710
Rijeka63125:71025
Levadia430113:49
Levadia430113:49Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.