Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.83
No45%
ours 2.20
All matches
—
Juventus — Napoli, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Juventus
3.2WWLDW
Napoli
3.1DWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%27%28%
Juventus45%Draw27%Napoli28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Juventus2.20—
XDraw3.77—
2Napoli3.56—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricJuventusNapoliCombined
Goals scored0.000.000.00
Conceded0.000.000.00
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
JuventusNapoli
Juventus FC 45%, SSC Napoli 28%. The safest is “Juventus FC or draw” at 75%.
Juventus FC 45%Draw 27%SSC Napoli 28%
1st half
38 · 39 · 23
2nd half
38 · 38 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Juventus
- homeAtalanta2:0
- homeNEC Nijmegen5:0
- awaySassuolo2:3
- homeAC Milan1:1
- homeParma2:0
Napoli
- awayFiorentina1:1
- homeBologna1:0
- homeArsenal0:1
- awayInter Milan2:3
- homeComo1:2
Head to head
- 01/25/26Serie A3:0
- 12/07/25Serie A1:2
- 01/25/25Serie A1:2
- 09/21/24Serie A0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
AC Milan532010:411
AC Milan532010:4116
Frosinone53119:410
Frosinone53119:4107Juventus53118:410
Juventus53118:4108
Como53119:610
Como53119:6109Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711
Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:76Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.