All matches

Juticalpa — Atletico Choloma, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras

Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras

Juticalpa
0.9WLLWL
—
Atletico Choloma
1.1WLDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
38%29%33%
Juticalpa38%Draw29%Atletico Choloma33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Juticalpa38%2.63—
XDraw29%3.49—
2Atletico Choloma33%3.00—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricJuticalpaAtletico CholomaCombined
Goals scored1.170.832.00
Conceded2.000.502.50
Corners9.88.89.3
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

JuticalpaAtletico Choloma

Juticalpa FC 38%, Atletico Choloma 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

Juticalpa FC 38%Draw 29%Atletico Choloma 33%
1st half
35 · 40 · 25
2nd half
26 · 41 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Juticalpa

  • homeMarathon3:2
  • awayAtletico Independiente1:2
  • homePolicia National0:3
  • homeLobos UPNFM1:0
  • awayEstrella Roja2:5

Atletico Choloma

  • homeEstrella Roja2:0
  • awayLobos UPNFM0:1
  • homeOlancho0:0
  • awayReal Espana1:2
  • homePlatense2:0

Head to head

  • 03/15/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:1
  • 01/24/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:0
  • 10/25/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras2:2
  • 08/17/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras3:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Atletico Independiente82337:119
9Lobos UPNFM82247:128
10Atletico Choloma82156:87
11Juticalpa82068:196
12Platense81256:185

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.