All matches

Jubilo Iwata — Oita Trinita, J2 League

Japan, J2 League

Jubilo Iwata
LLLWL
—
Oita Trinita
WDDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
49%28%24%
Jubilo Iwata49%Draw28%Oita Trinita24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Jubilo Iwata49%2.05—
XDraw28%3.63—
2Oita Trinita24%4.21—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.29

No56%

ours 1.78

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos: result and total

Two events in one forecast. The model scores them together, from the probability of every scoreline — so the link between them is built in: when the home side is stronger, a win and plenty of goals tend to come together.

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricJubilo IwataOita TrinitaCombined
Goals scored0.670.671.34
Conceded1.000.501.50
Corners11.09.810.4
Cards2.81.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

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69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Jubilo IwataOita Trinita

Jubilo Iwata 49%, Oita Trinita 24%. The safest is “Jubilo Iwata or draw” at 76%.

Jubilo Iwata 49%Draw 28%Oita Trinita 24%
1st half
39 · 45 · 16
2nd half
34 · 41 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Jubilo Iwata

  • awayVegalta Sendai1:2
  • homeVanraure Hachinohe1:2
  • awayAlbirex Niigata1:2
  • awayVentforet Kofu1:0
  • homeKataller Toyama0:1

Oita Trinita

  • homeMontedio Yamagata2:1
  • homeFujieda MYFC1:1
  • awayConsadole Sapporo1:1
  • awayOmiya Ardija0:0
  • homeFC Imabari1:1

Head to head

  • 08/31/25J2 League0:0
  • 04/25/25J2 League0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Montedio Yamagata940511:812
11Tegevajaro Miyazaki933313:1312
12Oita Trinita92529:711
13Tochigi City931515:1510
14Jubilo Iwata931511:1310
15Vanraure Hachinohe93155:1410
16Iwaki FC930612:179

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.