All matches

Narva Trans — Nomme United, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Narva Trans
1.1DLDLL
—
Nomme United
0.6LLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
49%22%29%
Narva Trans49%Draw22%Nomme United29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Narva Trans49%2.04—
XDraw22%4.60—
2Nomme United29%3.42—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.66

No40%

ours 2.50

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNarva TransNomme UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded0.501.001.50
Corners14.512.013.3
Cards0.51.01.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Narva TransNomme United

JK Narva Trans 49%, FC Nõmme United 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.

JK Narva Trans 49%Draw 22%FC Nõmme United 29%
1st half
42 · 35 · 23
2nd half
36 · 36 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Narva Trans

  • homeLevadia1:1
  • awayNomme Kalju0:2
  • homeFlora2:2
  • awayKuressaare1:3
  • homeTammeka Tartu0:2

Nomme United

  • homePaide1:3
  • homeFlora2:3
  • awayNomme Kalju2:1
  • awayVaprus Parnu0:1
  • homeHarju Jalgpallikool1:2

Head to head

  • 07/31/26Meistriliiga2:1
  • 06/13/26Meistriliiga1:2
  • 04/11/26Meistriliiga1:5
  • 09/21/24Meistriliiga4:0
  • 07/26/24Meistriliiga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Vaprus Parnu29941638:5831
8Kuressaare29851631:4929
9Nomme United29911947:6828
10Narva Trans29542022:6519

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.