All matches

Narva Trans — Kuressaare, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Narva Trans
1.1DLDLL
—
Kuressaare
0.8DLLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
45%23%33%
Narva Trans45%Draw23%Kuressaare33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Narva Trans45%2.23—
XDraw23%4.42—
2Kuressaare33%3.08—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNarva TransKuressaareCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded1.671.673.34
Corners9.410.49.9
Cards1.21.83.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Narva TransKuressaare

JK Narva Trans 45%, FC Kuressaare 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

JK Narva Trans 45%Draw 23%FC Kuressaare 33%
1st half
37 · 38 · 25
2nd half
36 · 39 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Narva Trans

  • homeLevadia1:1
  • awayNomme Kalju0:2
  • homeFlora2:2
  • awayKuressaare1:3
  • homeTammeka Tartu0:2

Kuressaare

  • awayHarju Jalgpallikool0:0
  • homeTammeka Tartu1:3
  • awayLevadia0:4
  • homeNarva Trans3:1
  • homeVaprus Parnu2:2

Head to head

  • 09/05/26Meistriliiga1:3
  • 06/16/26Meistriliiga0:0
  • 04/18/26Meistriliiga1:2
  • 09/20/25Meistriliiga0:0
  • 07/05/25Meistriliiga3:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
7Vaprus Parnu29941638:5831
8Kuressaare29851631:4929
9Nomme United29911947:6828
10Narva Trans29542022:6519

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.