Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.72
No42%
ours 2.39
All matches
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JEF United Ichihara Chiba — V-Varen Nagasaki, J1 League
Japan, J1 League
JEF United Ichihara Chiba
LDWLL
V-Varen Nagasaki
DWLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%25%34%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba41%Draw25%V-Varen Nagasaki34%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1JEF United Ichihara Chiba2.46—
XDraw4.02—
2V-Varen Nagasaki2.90—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricJEF United Ichihara ChibaV-Varen NagasakiCombined
Goals scored1.171.332.50
Conceded1.832.174.00
Corners8.78.58.6
Cards2.01.53.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
JEF United Ichihara ChibaV-Varen Nagasaki
JEF United Ichihara Chiba 41%, V-Varen Nagasaki 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
JEF United Ichihara Chiba 41%Draw 25%V-Varen Nagasaki 34%
1st half
38 · 38 · 24
2nd half
26 · 38 · 36
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
JEF United Ichihara Chiba
- awayShimizu S-Pulse1:2
- awayTokyo Verdy1:1
- homeGamba Osaka2:0
- homeFagiano Okayama1:2
- awayKawasaki Frontale2:4
V-Varen Nagasaki
- homeCerezo Osaka1:1
- homeNagoya Grampus2:0
- awayVissel Kobe1:3
- homeGamba Osaka2:2
- homeFC Tokyo0:3
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13
Mito Hollyhock823311:119
Mito Hollyhock823311:11914
Kyoto Sanga FC822411:158
Kyoto Sanga FC822411:15815V-Varen Nagasaki822410:158
V-Varen Nagasaki822410:15816
Gamba Osaka81348:146
Gamba Osaka81348:14617
Nagoya Grampus82067:146
Nagoya Grampus82067:14618
Avispa Fukuoka81169:124
Avispa Fukuoka81169:12419
Tokyo Verdy80444:124
Tokyo Verdy80444:12420JEF United Ichihara Chiba81167:184
JEF United Ichihara Chiba81167:184Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.