Inter Bogotá — Fortaleza CEIF, Primera A

Colombia, Primera AOctober 20 at 11:00 PM

Inter Bogotá

1.4DDDLL

Fortaleza CEIF

1.6DDDLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

42%30%28%

Inter BogotáMarket 1.8542%DrawMarket 3.5030%Fortaleza CEIFMarket 3.9528%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Inter Bogotá42%54%2.391.85-12.2

XDraw30%29%3.353.50+1.3

2Fortaleza CEIF28%25%3.543.95+2.9

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86book 1.82

No46%

ours 2.16book 1.88

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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69%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1804 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1802 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1794 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Inter BogotáFortaleza CEIF

Internacional de Bogotá 42%, Fortaleza CEIF FC 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 71%.

Internacional de Bogotá 42%Draw 30%Fortaleza CEIF FC 28%

1st half

31 · 47 · 21

2nd half

32 · 41 · 26

Bookmakers: 1.85 · 3.50 · 3.95

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricInter BogotáFortaleza CEIFCombined

Goals scored1.331.332.66

Conceded1.671.833.50

Corners10.77.08.8

Cards2.22.34.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.