Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.31
All matches
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Hibernian — Falkirk, Premiership
Scotland, Premiership
Hibernian
2.1DLLLW
Falkirk
1.7DWDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
55%24%21%
Hibernian55%Draw24%Falkirk21%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Hibernian1.83—
XDraw4.16—
2Falkirk4.71—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricHibernianFalkirkCombined
Goals scored0.831.001.83
Conceded1.331.172.50
Corners13.811.412.6
Cards1.02.43.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
HibernianFalkirk
Hibernian FC 55%, Falkirk FC 21%. The safest is “Hibernian FC or draw” at 77%.
Hibernian FC 55%Draw 24%Falkirk FC 21%
1st half
45 · 33 · 22
2nd half
36 · 39 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Hibernian
- homeAberdeen1:1
- homeKilmarnock0:1
- awaySaint Johnstone1:2
- homeHearts1:3
- awayDundee2:1
Falkirk
- awaySaint Johnstone1:1
- homeHearts2:1
- awayDundee United1:1
- homeRangers1:2
- awayCeltic1:2
Head to head
- 05/09/26Premiership3:1
- 01/24/26Premiership1:4
- 12/06/25Premiership3:0
- 09/23/25Premiership2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Dundee United72239:118
Dundee United72239:1189
Motherwell72239:118
Motherwell72239:11810Hibernian72148:117
Hibernian72148:11711Falkirk71336:96
Falkirk71336:9612
Kilmarnock71246:155
Kilmarnock71246:155Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.