All matches

Hearts — St. Mirren, Premiership

Scotland, Premiership

Hearts
2.6DLWWW
—
St. Mirren
1.3LLLWD
Outcome probability
7615
Hearts76%Draw15%St. Mirren9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Hearts76%69%1.321.45+7.0
XDraw15%22%6.604.65-6.4
2St. Mirren9%17%11.216.06-7.6

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.64book 1.62

No62%

ours 1.61book 2.16

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHeartsSt. MirrenCombined
Goals scored1.831.002.83
Conceded1.331.502.83
Corners12.811.712.3
Cards1.82.24.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

HeartsSt. Mirren

Heart of Midlothian FC 76%, Saint Mirren FC 9%. The safest is “Heart of Midlothian FC or draw” at 90%.

Heart of Midlothian FC 76%Draw 15%Saint Mirren FC 9%
1st half
46 · 39 · 15
2nd half
60 · 31 · 9

Bookmakers: 1.45 · 4.65 · 6.06

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%1.65
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Hearts

  • awayKilmarnock1:1
  • awayFalkirk1:2
  • homeDundee2:1
  • awayHibernian3:1
  • homeSaint Johnstone2:1

St. Mirren

  • homeDundee United0:3
  • awayRangers0:1
  • homeCeltic1:2
  • awayKilmarnock1:0
  • homeMotherwell3:3

Head to head

  • 02/03/26Premiership0:1
  • 01/14/26Premiership2:0
  • 10/29/25Premiership2:2
  • 02/26/25Premiership3:1
  • 10/19/24Premiership4:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Celtic760114:418
2Rangers75118:416
3Hearts741214:813
4Dundee73139:710
5St. Mirren73138:910
6Saint Johnstone72239:108
7Aberdeen72237:88

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.