Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.31
All matches
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Hearts — Rangers, Premiership
Scotland, Premiership
Hearts
2.6DLWWW
Rangers
3.0WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%25%34%
Hearts41%Draw25%Rangers34%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Hearts2.47—
XDraw3.94—
2Rangers2.94—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricHeartsRangersCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded0.170.000.17
Corners8.012.010.0
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
HeartsRangers
Heart of Midlothian FC 41%, Rangers FC 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Heart of Midlothian FC 41%Draw 25%Rangers FC 34%
1st half
37 · 36 · 27
2nd half
30 · 38 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Hearts
- awayKilmarnock1:1
- awayFalkirk1:2
- homeDundee2:1
- awayHibernian3:1
- homeSaint Johnstone2:1
Rangers
- awayCeltic1:0
- homeSt. Mirren1:0
- homeMotherwell1:0
- awayFalkirk2:1
- awayAberdeen1:0
Head to head
- 05/04/26Premiership2:1
- 02/15/26Premiership2:4
- 12/21/25Premiership2:1
- 09/13/25Premiership2:0
- 02/16/25Premiership1:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Celtic760114:418
Celtic760114:4182Rangers75118:416
Rangers75118:4163Hearts741214:813
Hearts741214:8134
Dundee73139:710
Dundee73139:7105
St. Mirren73138:910
St. Mirren73138:910Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.