Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.62
No38%
ours 2.62
All matches
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Harju Jalgpallikool — Nomme United, Meistriliiga
Estonia, Meistriliiga
Harju Jalgpallikool
1.4DWWLW
Nomme United
0.6LLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
56%21%23%
Harju Jalgpallikool56%Draw21%Nomme United23%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Harju Jalgpallikool1.77—
XDraw4.86—
2Nomme United4.36—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricHarju JalgpallikoolNomme UnitedCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded1.001.672.67
Corners10.810.610.7
Cards2.62.24.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Harju JalgpallikoolNomme United
Harju Jalgpallikool 56%, FC Nõmme United 23%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.
Harju Jalgpallikool 56%Draw 21%FC Nõmme United 23%
1st half
42 · 35 · 23
2nd half
39 · 34 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Harju Jalgpallikool
- homeKuressaare0:0
- awayPaide2:1
- awayVaprus Parnu3:2
- homeTammeka Tartu0:2
- awayNomme United2:1
Nomme United
- homePaide1:3
- homeFlora2:3
- awayNomme Kalju2:1
- awayVaprus Parnu0:1
- homeHarju Jalgpallikool1:2
Head to head
- 08/29/26Meistriliiga2:1
- 06/20/26Meistriliiga1:3
- 04/18/26Meistriliiga2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Nomme Kalju29155952:2750
Nomme Kalju29155952:27505
Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
Tammeka Tartu291421337:47446Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:46387
Vaprus Parnu29941638:5831
Vaprus Parnu29941638:58318
Kuressaare29851631:4929
Kuressaare29851631:49299Nomme United29911947:6828
Nomme United29911947:682810
Narva Trans29542022:6519
Narva Trans29542022:6519Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.