Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem — Hapoel Tel Aviv, Israeli Premier League

Israel, Israeli Premier LeagueOctober 24 at 03:45 PM

Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem

1.2WDWLL

—

Hapoel Tel Aviv

2.8WLWWD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

19%23%58%

Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem19%Draw23%Hapoel Tel Aviv58%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem19%5.32—

XDraw23%4.35—

2Hapoel Tel Aviv58%1.72—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHapoel Katamon JerusalemHapoel Tel AvivCombined

Goals scored1.671.833.50

Conceded1.170.671.84

Corners8.38.88.5

Cards2.82.04.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Hapoel Katamon JerusalemHapoel Tel Aviv

Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem FC 19%, Hapoel Tel Aviv FC 58%. The safest is “Hapoel Tel Aviv FC or draw” at 78%.

Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem FC 19%Draw 23%Hapoel Tel Aviv FC 58%

1st half

24 · 45 · 31

2nd half

21 · 38 · 41

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context