All matches

Guayaquil City — Emelec, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Guayaquil City
1.9DWLLW
—
Emelec
1.8LLWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
46%26%28%
Guayaquil CityMarket 2.9446%DrawMarket 3.0826%EmelecMarket 2.4628%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Guayaquil City46%34%2.192.94+11.7
XDraw26%32%3.843.08-6.3
2Emelec28%41%3.542.46-12.3

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83book 1.97

No45%

ours 2.20book 1.73

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGuayaquil CityEmelecCombined
Goals scored2.000.832.83
Conceded1.671.172.84
Corners7.811.29.5
Cards2.32.04.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Guayaquil CityEmelec

Guayaquil City FC 46%, CS Emelec 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Guayaquil City FC 46%Draw 26%CS Emelec 28%
1st half
30 · 40 · 30
2nd half
36 · 38 · 26

Bookmakers: 2.94 · 3.08 · 2.46

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%1.44
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Guayaquil City

  • homeLeones del Norte1:1
  • homeMushuc Runa3:1
  • awayOrense3:4
  • awayCuenca0:1
  • homeLDU Quito2:1

Emelec

  • homeCA Libertad1:2
  • awayMacara0:1
  • homeManta1:0
  • awayCA Libertad1:1
  • homeLeones del Norte2:1

Head to head

  • 08/10/26Primera Categoría Serie A0:0
  • 04/18/26Primera Categoría Serie A3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7CA Libertad311281135:3544
8Leones del Norte3110101132:3340
9Guayaquil City3110101134:3740
10Mushuc Runa319121036:3939
11Emelec311091226:3639
12Cuenca311071426:3837
13Orense31961637:4933

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.