Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.69
No41%
ours 2.46
All matches
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Guayaquil City — CA Libertad, Primera Categoría Serie A
Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A
Guayaquil City
1.9DWLLW
CA Libertad
2.0WLWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%25%32%
Guayaquil City42%Draw25%CA Libertad32%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Guayaquil City2.36—
XDraw3.93—
2CA Libertad3.11—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricGuayaquil CityCA LibertadCombined
Goals scored1.170.832.00
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners6.713.09.8
Cards2.72.75.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Guayaquil CityCA Libertad
Guayaquil City FC 42%, CA Libertad 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Guayaquil City FC 42%Draw 25%CA Libertad 32%
1st half
32 · 38 · 30
2nd half
37 · 36 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Guayaquil City
- homeLeones del Norte1:1
- homeMushuc Runa3:1
- awayOrense3:4
- awayCuenca0:1
- homeLDU Quito2:1
CA Libertad
- awayEmelec2:1
- homeIndependiente del Valle2:3
- awayCuenca1:0
- homeEmelec1:1
- awayAucas0:1
Head to head
- 08/15/26Primera Categoría Serie A2:2
- 04/21/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
LDU Quito311471033:2549
LDU Quito311471033:25496
Barcelona SC301111832:2544
Barcelona SC301111832:25447CA Libertad311281135:3544
CA Libertad311281135:35448
Leones del Norte3110101132:3340
Leones del Norte3110101132:33409Guayaquil City3110101134:3740
Guayaquil City3110101134:374010
Mushuc Runa319121036:3939
Mushuc Runa319121036:393911
Emelec311091226:3639
Emelec311091226:3639Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.