All matches

Gremio — Cruzeiro, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Gremio
1.5DLLLW
—
Cruzeiro
2.7WLWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
37%26%38%
Gremio37%Draw26%Cruzeiro38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Gremio37%2.74—
XDraw26%3.91—
2Cruzeiro38%2.64—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.47

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGremioCruzeiroCombined
Goals scored0.501.331.83
Conceded1.001.172.17
Corners8.012.310.1
Cards3.52.35.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

GremioCruzeiro

Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense 36%, Cruzeiro EC 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense 36%Draw 26%Cruzeiro EC 38%
1st half
37 · 36 · 27
2nd half
28 · 37 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

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Form and context

Gremio

  • homePalmeiras0:0
  • awayBotafogo2:3
  • homeVasco da Gama1:2
  • awayVitoria0:1
  • homeChapecoense3:1

Cruzeiro

  • awayVitoria3:1
  • awaySantos1:2
  • homeCA Paranaense3:1
  • awayVasco da Gama1:3
  • homeFlamengo2:1

Head to head

  • 04/18/26Serie A0:2
  • 11/05/25Serie A0:1
  • 07/13/25Serie A1:4
  • 11/28/24Serie A1:1
  • 07/10/24Serie A0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Fluminense28139644:3648
5Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro28127937:3243
8Santos28118943:4141
9Coritiba281081037:4338
10Sao Paulo281061233:3236
11Red Bull Bragantino281061233:3236
12Botafogo28981141:4535
13Vitoria28961328:4233
14Corinthians28881229:3232
15Mirassol28881233:4232
16Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
17Gremio28781330:3829
18Internacional286101230:3628
19Remo28581532:4723

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.