All matches

Gimnasia La Plata — Tucuman, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División

Gimnasia La Plata
2.1DDDWW
—
Tucuman
1.3LLLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
52%26%22%
Gimnasia La Plata52%Draw26%Tucuman22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Gimnasia La Plata52%1.92—
XDraw26%3.91—
2Tucuman22%4.46—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGimnasia La PlataTucumanCombined
Goals scored1.670.832.50
Conceded1.501.172.67
Corners8.38.38.3
Cards2.21.53.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Gimnasia La PlataTucuman

Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 52%, CA Tucuman 22%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 52%Draw 26%CA Tucuman 22%
1st half
43 · 37 · 20
2nd half
33 · 38 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Gimnasia La Plata

  • awayIndependiente Rivadavia1:1
  • homeBanfield2:2
  • awayArgentinos Juniors1:1
  • homeTigre2:1
  • awayRosario Central2:1

Tucuman

  • homeBarracas Central2:3
  • awayAldosivi0:1
  • homeRiver Plate1:2
  • awayRacing Club2:1
  • homeBelgrano de Cordoba0:0

Head to head

  • 03/21/26Primera División0:1
  • 09/01/25Primera División1:0
  • 02/24/25Primera División1:0
  • 04/01/17Primera División1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6River Plate301541142:2949
7Velez Sarsfield281213335:2449
8Gimnasia La Plata291451036:3747
9Estudiantes281351032:1944
10Huracan291111731:2444
11Instituto Córdoba26134932:2443
12Independiente28118936:3541
13Defensa y Justicia271010734:3240
14Lanus27108928:2638
15Union de Santa Fe291071243:4237
16Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:3436
17Barracas Central2698922:2335
18Racing Club29981232:3435
19Sarmiento261121330:3635
20Talleres de Cordoba28971228:3234
21San Lorenzo de Almagro288101020:2734
22Tigre27711928:2632
23Newell's Old Boys27711926:3532
24Tucuman27691224:2927
25Banfield26761328:3527
26Platense275111121:3226

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.