All matches

Galway United — St Patrick's, Premier Division

Republic of Ireland, Premier Division

Galway United
1.6DLWLD
—
St Patrick's
2.8WWWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
28%27%45%
Galway United28%Draw27%St Patrick's45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Galway United28%3.55—
XDraw27%3.72—
2St Patrick's45%2.23—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGalway UnitedSt Patrick'sCombined
Goals scored1.001.172.17
Conceded1.000.331.33
Corners9.510.39.9
Cards1.80.82.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Galway UnitedSt Patrick's

Galway United FC 28%, St Patrick's Athletic FC 45%. The safest is “St Patrick's Athletic FC or draw” at 74%.

Galway United FC 28%Draw 27%St Patrick's Athletic FC 45%
1st half
30 · 35 · 35
2nd half
23 · 42 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 4.5

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Galway United

  • homeShelbourne1:1
  • awayDerry City0:1
  • awaySligo Rovers3:1
  • homeBohemians2:3
  • homeShelbourne1:1

St Patrick's

  • awaySligo Rovers1:0
  • awayDundalk4:0
  • homeShamrock Rovers2:0
  • homeWaterford0:2
  • awayDrogheda United2:0

Head to head

  • 07/03/26Premier Division0:3
  • 05/01/26Premier Division2:2
  • 03/02/26Premier Division0:1
  • 09/19/25Premier Division1:1
  • 06/20/25Premier Division3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1St Patrick's32178752:2559
2Bohemians32178757:3859
3Shamrock Rovers31178649:3159
4Derry City32914945:4241
5Dundalk3310111250:5541
6Shelbourne329131042:4540
7Galway United329111242:4838
8Waterford327131244:5434
9Drogheda United328101438:5134

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.