All matches

FS Jelgava — Daugavpils, Virsliga

Latvia, Virsliga

FS Jelgava
0.9LDLWW
—
Daugavpils
1.6DLDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
37%26%38%
FS Jelgava37%Draw26%Daugavpils38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FS Jelgava37%2.72—
XDraw26%3.92—
2Daugavpils38%2.66—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.27

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFS JelgavaDaugavpilsCombined
Goals scored0.670.331.00
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners8.010.39.1
Cards1.51.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FS JelgavaDaugavpils

FS Jelgava 37%, Bērnu futbola centrs Daugavpils 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

FS Jelgava 37%Draw 26%Bērnu futbola centrs Daugavpils 38%
1st half
32 · 41 · 27
2nd half
32 · 38 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

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Form and context

FS Jelgava

  • homeRiga0:1
  • awayGrobina0:0
  • homeSuper Nova0:1
  • awayTukums4:1
  • awayOgre United3:2

Daugavpils

  • awayLiepaja0:0
  • homeRFS1:2
  • awayRiga1:1
  • awayGrobina0:1
  • awaySuper Nova0:0

Head to head

  • 08/01/26Virsliga1:2
  • 05/31/26Virsliga1:1
  • 04/16/26Virsliga0:1
  • 10/18/25Virsliga0:0
  • 07/27/25Virsliga0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Auda Riga31187649:3061
4Liepaja311271241:4343
5Daugavpils311091235:3539
6Super Nova301051529:4035
7FS Jelgava31881532:4932
8Grobina315111521:5226
9Tukums31591744:6124

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.