Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.32
All matches
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Fredrikstad — Rosenborg, Eliteserien
Norway, Eliteserien
Fredrikstad
2.0DDLWW
Rosenborg
2.4WWWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
37%24%38%
Fredrikstad37%Draw24%Rosenborg38%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fredrikstad2.67—
XDraw4.13—
2Rosenborg2.61—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFredrikstadRosenborgCombined
Goals scored0.502.002.50
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners10.79.09.8
Cards2.00.72.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FredrikstadRosenborg
Fredrikstad FK 37%, Rosenborg BK 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Fredrikstad FK 37%Draw 24%Rosenborg BK 38%
1st half
34 · 36 · 30
2nd half
28 · 40 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Fredrikstad
- awayVålerenga Fotball1:1
- homeSarpsborg 081:1
- homeBodo/Glimt1:2
- awayLillestrom4:1
- homeKristiansund1:0
Rosenborg
- awayKristiansund3:1
- homeTromso5:3
- homeHamKam4:0
- awayBodo/Glimt2:4
- homeViking2:1
Head to head
- 07/27/26Eliteserien0:4
- 05/28/25Eliteserien0:2
- 04/05/25Eliteserien0:1
- 07/27/24Eliteserien2:2
- 06/02/24Eliteserien1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Tromso21115540:2938
Tromso21115540:29384
Molde21113744:3236
Molde21113744:32365Rosenborg21103839:3033
Rosenborg21103839:30336
Lillestrom21102928:2932
Lillestrom21102928:29327
Brann21921039:3229
Brann21921039:32298Fredrikstad2184925:3228
Fredrikstad2184925:32289
Sarpsborg 082167824:2925
Sarpsborg 082167824:292510
KFUM21741025:3525
KFUM21741025:3525Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.