Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.86
No46%
ours 2.17
All matches
France — Turkey, UEFA Nations League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
64%23%13%
France64%Draw23%Turkey13%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1France1.56—
XDraw4.32—
2Turkey7.88—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FranceTurkey
France 64%, Turkey 13%. The safest is “France or draw” at 87%.
France 64%Draw 23%Turkey 13%
1st half
38 · 42 · 20
2nd half
60 · 30 · 10
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots on target: Over 7.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFranceTurkeyCombined
Goals scored2.201.003.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
France- 11 goals in the last 5 matches4:1, 1:1, 1:0, 1:0, 4:6
- 2.7 goals per game at home9 matches
Turkey- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches13 goals conceded
- 4 defeats in a row1:3, 0:3, 1:4, 0:1, 3:2
- Over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 5
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
France
- homeBelgium4:1
- homeItaly1:1
- awayBelgium1:0
- awayTurkey1:0
- homeEngland4:6
Turkey
- awayItaly1:3
- awayBelgium0:3
- homeItaly1:4
- homeFrance0:1
- homeUnited States Men's3:2
Head to head
- 09/25/26UEFA Nations League1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.