All matches

Fluminense — Santos, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Fluminense
2.6WLWDW
—
Santos
2.3WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
53%25%22%
Fluminense53%Draw25%Santos22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fluminense53%1.89—
XDraw25%4.00—
2Santos22%4.53—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.74

No42%

ours 2.35

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFluminenseSantosCombined
Goals scored1.331.502.83
Conceded1.170.832.00
Corners10.512.311.4
Cards3.33.36.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FluminenseSantos

Fluminense FC 53%, Santos FC Sao Paulo 22%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Fluminense FC 53%Draw 25%Santos FC Sao Paulo 22%
1st half
37 · 41 · 22
2nd half
38 · 35 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Fluminense

  • awayCorinthians3:1
  • awayCA Mineiro1:3
  • homeVasco da Gama1:0
  • awayCA Paranaense3:3
  • homeRemo2:1

Santos

  • awaySao Paulo2:1
  • awayRemo2:1
  • homeCruzeiro2:1
  • awayInternacional3:2
  • awayCorinthians1:0

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Serie A3:2
  • 08/31/25Serie A0:0
  • 04/13/25Serie A1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Palmeiras28169347:2157
3CA Paranaense28147743:3249
4Fluminense28139644:3648
5Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro28127937:3243
8Santos28118943:4141
9Coritiba281081037:4338
10Sao Paulo281061233:3236

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.