Zhetysu Taldykorgan — Kaisar Kyzylorda, Premier League

Kazakhstan, Premier LeagueOctober 17 at 11:00 AM

Zhetysu Taldykorgan

0.9LLLWL

Kaisar Kyzylorda

1.3LDWLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

36%30%35%

Zhetysu TaldykorganMarket 2.5636%DrawMarket 3.0230%Kaisar KyzylordaMarket 2.9235%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Zhetysu Taldykorgan36%39%2.812.56-3.4

XDraw30%33%3.393.02-3.7

2Kaisar Kyzylorda35%34%2.872.92+0.6

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.99book 1.90

No50%

ours 2.01book 1.82

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1747 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1745 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1736 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Zhetysu TaldykorganKaisar Kyzylorda

FK Zhetysu Taldykorgan 36%, FK Kaisar Kyzylorda 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 70%.

FK Zhetysu Taldykorgan 36%Draw 30%FK Kaisar Kyzylorda 35%

1st half

23 · 45 · 32

2nd half

32 · 45 · 23

Bookmakers: 2.56 · 3.02 · 2.92

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricZhetysu TaldykorganKaisar KyzylordaCombined

Goals scored0.501.171.67

Conceded1.832.174.00

Corners9.811.010.4

Cards2.82.25.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Form and context