All matches

Zenit — Makhachkala, Russian Premier League

Russia, Russian Premier League

Zenit
3.5WWLWL
—
Makhachkala
1.2LLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
71%21%
Zenit71%Draw21%Makhachkala9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Zenit71%1.41—
XDraw21%4.84—
2Makhachkala9%11.66—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.07

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricZenitMakhachkalaCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded0.831.502.33
Corners11.58.39.9
Cards1.52.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

ZenitMakhachkala

FK Zenit St. Petersburg 71%, FK Makhachkala 9%. The safest is “FK Zenit St. Petersburg or draw” at 86%.

FK Zenit St. Petersburg 71%Draw 21%FK Makhachkala 9%
1st half
42 · 38 · 20
2nd half
44 · 39 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Zenit

  • awayBaltika Kaliningrad3:2
  • homeLokomotiv Moskva2:1
  • homeCSKA Moscow1:2
  • awayFakel Voronezh1:0
  • awaySpartak Moscow0:2

Makhachkala

  • homeCSKA Moscow1:3
  • awayAkhmat Grozny2:3
  • homeRodina Moskva2:0
  • awayRubin Kazan1:3
  • homeKrasnodar0:1

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Russian Premier League1:0
  • 08/23/25Russian Premier League4:0
  • 05/10/25Russian Premier League1:0
  • 11/02/24Russian Premier League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3CSKA Moscow954015:919
4Dinamo Moskva961214:819
5Zenit960319:918
6Rubin Kazan926112:1112
7Makhachkala940515:1612
8Baltika Kaliningrad932414:1211
9Krylia Sovetov925213:1411

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.