All matches

TransINVEST — Hegelmann, A Lyga

Lithuania, A Lyga

TransINVEST
1.9WWLWD
—
Hegelmann
2.0DDLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
51%26%23%
TransINVEST51%Draw26%Hegelmann23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1TransINVEST51%1.98—
XDraw26%3.83—
2Hegelmann23%4.28—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.24

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTransINVESTHegelmannCombined
Goals scored1.670.832.50
Conceded0.501.171.67
Corners8.88.48.6
Cards1.83.04.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

TransINVESTHegelmann

FK TransINVEST Vilnius 51%, FC Hegelmann Litauen Kaunas 23%. The safest is “FK TransINVEST Vilnius or draw” at 77%.

FK TransINVEST Vilnius 51%Draw 26%FC Hegelmann Litauen Kaunas 23%
1st half
44 · 37 · 19
2nd half
33 · 40 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

TransINVEST

  • homeZalgiris3:0
  • awayBanga Gargzdai3:1
  • homeSuduva Marijampole1:2
  • homeSiauliai3:0
  • awayKauno Zalgiris1:1

Hegelmann

  • homeSuduva Marijampole1:1
  • awaySiauliai0:0
  • homePanevezys1:3
  • awayDziugas Telsiai2:2
  • homeBanga Gargzdai1:1

Head to head

  • 08/02/26A Lyga2:1
  • 05/29/26A Lyga2:1
  • 04/04/26A Lyga1:3
  • 11/06/24A Lyga1:4
  • 10/19/24A Lyga3:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Kauno Zalgiris30169562:2157
2Suduva Marijampole301511447:2556
3TransINVEST30156951:3551
4Zalgiris301461044:3648
5Banga Gargzdai30138941:2847
6Dziugas Telsiai301281039:4044
7Panevezys291051431:4435
8Hegelmann304151131:4827
9Siauliai31491827:5921
10Trakai1603135:423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.