All matches

Trakai — Suduva Marijampole, A Lyga

Lithuania, A Lyga

Trakai
0.6LLLLL
—
Suduva Marijampole
2.6DDLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
15%20%64%
Trakai15%Draw20%Suduva Marijampole64%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Trakai15%6.61—
XDraw20%4.90—
2Suduva Marijampole64%1.55—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.96

No49%

ours 2.04

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTrakaiSuduva MarijampoleCombined
Goals scored0.000.670.67
Conceded0.001.171.17
Corners—8.5—
Cards—0.5—
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

TrakaiSuduva Marijampole

FK Trakai 15%, FK Sūduva Marijampolė 64%. The safest is “FK Sūduva Marijampolė or draw” at 82%.

FK Trakai 15%Draw 20%FK Sūduva Marijampolė 64%
1st half
21 · 38 · 41
2nd half
22 · 38 · 39
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Trakai

  • awayZalgiris2:3
  • homeSuduva Marijampole0:3
  • awaySiauliai0:2
  • awayDziugas Telsiai0:1
  • homeBanga Gargzdai0:4

Suduva Marijampole

  • awayHegelmann1:1
  • homeZalgiris0:0
  • awayKauno Zalgiris1:5
  • awayTransINVEST2:1
  • awaySiauliai2:1

Head to head

  • 05/29/26A Lyga0:3
  • 04/03/26A Lyga0:5
  • 10/04/25A Lyga0:0
  • 07/20/25A Lyga0:0
  • 06/01/25A Lyga1:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Kauno Zalgiris30169562:2157
2Suduva Marijampole301511447:2556
3TransINVEST30156951:3551
4Zalgiris301461044:3648
5Banga Gargzdai30138941:2847
6Dziugas Telsiai301281039:4044
7Panevezys291051431:4435
8Hegelmann304151131:4827
9Siauliai31491827:5921
10Trakai1603135:423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.