Tobol — Zhenys, Premier League

Kazakhstan, Premier LeagueOctober 17 at 12:00 PM

Tobol

2.4WLWWL

Zhenys

1.8LLWLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

56%24%20%

TobolMarket 2.0956%DrawMarket 3.3024%ZhenysMarket 3.5320%

Line-upsLine-ups not announced yet — they usually appear an hour before kick-off.

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Tobol56%48%1.782.09+8.4

XDraw24%30%4.153.30-6.2

2Zhenys20%28%5.083.53-8.7

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.80book 1.83

No44%

ours 2.25book 1.86

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1969 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1965 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1955 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

TobolZhenys

FK Tobol Kostanay 56%, FK Zhenys 20%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

FK Tobol Kostanay 56%Draw 24%FK Zhenys 20%

1st half

42 · 39 · 20

2nd half

35 · 38 · 26

Bookmakers: 2.09 · 3.30 · 3.53

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

73%1.42

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTobolZhenysCombined

Goals scored2.001.003.00

Conceded1.331.673.00

Corners11.57.39.4

Cards1.82.84.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.