All matches

Tobol — Aktobe, Kazakhstan Premier League

Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Premier League

Tobol
2.2LWWLW
—
Aktobe
2.3DWWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
45%26%29%
Tobol45%Draw26%Aktobe29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Tobol45%2.23—
XDraw26%3.85—
2Aktobe29%3.42—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70

No41%

ours 2.42

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTobolAktobeCombined
Goals scored1.170.832.00
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners11.09.710.3
Cards1.73.35.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

TobolAktobe

FK Tobol Kostanay 45%, FK Aktobe 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

FK Tobol Kostanay 45%Draw 26%FK Aktobe 29%
1st half
37 · 37 · 26
2nd half
31 · 38 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Tobol

  • homeYelimay0:2
  • awayKairat4:1
  • homeUlytau Zhezkazgan3:1
  • awayCaspiy0:1
  • homeKaisar Kyzylorda3:2

Aktobe

  • homeUlytau Zhezkazgan2:2
  • awayCaspiy2:1
  • homeZhenys1:0
  • awayIrtysh Pavlodar1:2
  • awayKaisar Kyzylorda2:1

Head to head

  • 03/07/26Kazakhstan Premier League1:4
  • 07/20/25Kazakhstan Premier League0:0
  • 04/19/25Kazakhstan Premier League2:0
  • 09/22/24Kazakhstan Premier League3:0
  • 06/30/24Kazakhstan Premier League4:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Astana25146542:2548
4Okzhetpes Kokshetau26136741:3545
5Aktobe26126838:3142
6Yelimay25108735:3338
7Tobol261041233:3534
8Zhenys26881026:3232
9Ulytau Zhezkazgan26881024:3232

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.