Suduva Marijampole — Kauno Zalgiris, A Lyga

Lithuania, A LygaOctober 19 at 03:45 PM

Suduva Marijampole

2.6DDLWW

—

Kauno Zalgiris

3.0WLWWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

34%27%39%

Suduva Marijampole34%Draw27%Kauno Zalgiris39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Suduva Marijampole34%2.95—

XDraw27%3.73—

2Kauno Zalgiris39%2.55—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.87

No46%

ours 2.15

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSuduva MarijampoleKauno ZalgirisCombined

Goals scored1.002.503.50

Conceded1.330.672.00

Corners9.412.210.8

Cards0.42.02.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Suduva MarijampoleKauno Zalgiris

FK Sūduva Marijampolė 34%, FK Kauno Žalgiris 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

FK Sūduva Marijampolė 34%Draw 27%FK Kauno Žalgiris 39%

1st half

29 · 41 · 30

2nd half

28 · 39 · 33

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context