Suduva Marijampole — Banga Gargzdai, A Lyga

Lithuania, A LygaNovember 1 at 12:15 PM

Suduva Marijampole

2.6DDLWW

—

Banga Gargzdai

1.8WLLDD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

49%27%25%

Suduva Marijampole49%Draw27%Banga Gargzdai25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Suduva Marijampole49%2.06—

XDraw27%3.72—

2Banga Gargzdai25%4.07—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.10

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSuduva MarijampoleBanga GargzdaiCombined

Goals scored0.330.500.83

Conceded1.001.002.00

Corners7.78.78.2

Cards0.31.31.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Suduva MarijampoleBanga Gargzdai

FK Sūduva Marijampolė 49%, FK Banga Gargždai 25%. The safest is “FK Sūduva Marijampolė or draw” at 74%.

FK Sūduva Marijampolė 49%Draw 27%FK Banga Gargždai 25%

1st half

37 · 41 · 21

2nd half

32 · 40 · 27

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context