Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.17
All matches
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FK Sochi — FK Ural, FNL
Russia, FNL
FK Sochi
1.2DWLWW
FK Ural
WWDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
37%28%35%
FK Sochi37%Draw28%FK Ural35%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Sochi2.69—
XDraw3.55—
2FK Ural2.88—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFK SochiFK UralCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners10.07.78.8
Cards1.72.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FK SochiFK Ural
FK Sochi 37%, FK Ural 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
FK Sochi 37%Draw 28%FK Ural 35%
1st half
29 · 40 · 30
2nd half
34 · 43 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Over 0.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
FK Sochi
- homeFK SKA-Khabarovsk1:1
- awayVeles Moskva2:1
- homeFK Olimpiyets Nizhny Novgorod0:1
- homeFK Chelyabinsk2:1
- awayFK KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny3:2
FK Ural
- awayFK Spartak Kostroma2:1
- awayFK Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk1:0
- awayFK Shinnik Yaroslavl1:1
- homeFK KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny2:0
- awayFK Arsenal Tula2:2
Head to head
- 03/09/25FNL1:0
- 07/14/24FNL0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
FK Olimpiyets Nizhny Novgorod12101136:1431
FK Olimpiyets Nizhny Novgorod12101136:14312FK Ural1274120:625
FK Ural1274120:6253
FK Spartak Kostroma1273216:1024
FK Spartak Kostroma1273216:10244FK Sochi1272321:1423
FK Sochi1272321:14235
Veles Moskva1372417:1623
Veles Moskva1372417:16236
FK Torpedo Moskva1263321:921
FK Torpedo Moskva1263321:921Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.