FK Rotor Volgograd — FK Sochi, FNL

Russia, FNLOctober 16 at 04:00 PM

FK Rotor Volgograd

WWDLL

—

FK Sochi

1.2DWLWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

45%27%28%

FK Rotor Volgograd45%Draw27%FK Sochi28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Rotor Volgograd45%2.21—

XDraw27%3.68—

2FK Sochi28%3.61—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.37

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Rotor VolgogradFK SochiCombined

Goals scored1.331.332.66

Conceded0.671.001.67

Corners9.48.89.1

Cards3.22.05.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

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69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FK Rotor VolgogradFK Sochi

FK Rotor Volgograd 45%, FK Sochi 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

FK Rotor Volgograd 45%Draw 27%FK Sochi 28%

1st half

44 · 37 · 19

2nd half

28 · 40 · 31

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context