All matches

Rostov — Lokomotiv Moskva, Russian Premier League

Russia, Russian Premier League

Rostov
1.5LLWLL
—
Lokomotiv Moskva
2.3DLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
39%28%33%
Rostov39%Draw28%Lokomotiv Moskva33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Rostov39%2.55—
XDraw28%3.59—
2Lokomotiv Moskva33%3.04—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.74

No42%

ours 2.36

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRostovLokomotiv MoskvaCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded1.330.672.00
Corners8.06.37.1
Cards2.33.55.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

RostovLokomotiv Moskva

FK Rostov 39%, FK Lokomotiv Moskva 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

FK Rostov 39%Draw 28%FK Lokomotiv Moskva 33%
1st half
34 · 38 · 27
2nd half
36 · 38 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Rostov

  • homeDinamo Moskva0:3
  • awaySpartak Moscow0:3
  • homeFakel Voronezh3:1
  • awayKrasnodar0:1
  • awayAkhmat Grozny1:4

Lokomotiv Moskva

  • homeKrylia Sovetov1:1
  • awayZenit1:2
  • awayBaltika Kaliningrad1:0
  • homeDinamo Moskva0:1
  • awayCSKA Moscow2:3

Head to head

  • 11/30/25Russian Premier League1:3
  • 08/23/25Russian Premier League3:3
  • 04/26/25Russian Premier League1:1
  • 08/25/24Russian Premier League2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Orenburg91627:109
12Akron Togliatti915311:188
13Rostov922510:178
14Lokomotiv Moskva91448:117
15Rodina Moskva912610:225
16Fakel Voronezh90366:133

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.