Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.95
No49%
ours 2.06
All matches
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RFS — Super Nova, Virsliga
Latvia, Virsliga
RFS
4.0DWDWD
Super Nova
1.2LLWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
79%16%
RFS79%Draw16%Super Nova6%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1RFS1.27—
XDraw6.40—
2Super Nova17.76—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricRFSSuper NovaCombined
Goals scored1.500.502.00
Conceded0.830.501.33
Corners10.412.011.2
Cards1.21.83.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
RFSSuper Nova
FK Rīgas Futbola skola 79%, SK Super Nova 6%. The safest is “FK Rīgas Futbola skola or draw” at 92%.
FK Rīgas Futbola skola 79%Draw 16%SK Super Nova 6%
1st half
58 · 30 · 12
2nd half
47 · 36 · 17
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
RFS
- awayAuda Riga1:1
- awayDaugavpils2:1
- homeLiepaja0:0
- awayOgre United3:0
- homeRiga3:3
Super Nova
- awayOgre United0:1
- homeRiga0:1
- homeTukums1:0
- awayFS Jelgava1:0
- awayAuda Riga1:1
Head to head
- 05/29/26Virsliga2:1
- 04/18/26Virsliga2:0
- 11/02/25Virsliga3:1
- 08/10/25Virsliga4:1
- 06/14/25Virsliga2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1RFS30235271:2274
RFS30235271:22742
Riga31227286:3073
Riga31227286:30733
Auda Riga31187649:3061
Auda Riga31187649:30614
Liepaja311271241:4343
Liepaja311271241:43435
Daugavpils311091235:3539
Daugavpils311091235:35396Super Nova301051529:4035
Super Nova301051529:40357
FS Jelgava31881532:4932
FS Jelgava31881532:49328
Grobina315111521:5226
Grobina315111521:5226Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.