All matches

RFS — FS Jelgava, Virsliga

Latvia, Virsliga

RFS
4.0DWDWD
—
FS Jelgava
0.9LDLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
78%16%
RFS78%Draw16%FS Jelgava6%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1RFS78%1.27—
XDraw16%6.39—
2FS Jelgava6%17.06—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRFSFS JelgavaCombined
Goals scored1.671.172.84
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners10.28.89.5
Cards1.51.83.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

RFSFS Jelgava

FK Rīgas Futbola skola 78%, FS Jelgava 6%. The safest is “FK Rīgas Futbola skola or draw” at 91%.

FK Rīgas Futbola skola 78%Draw 16%FS Jelgava 6%
1st half
54 · 32 · 14
2nd half
49 · 35 · 16
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

RFS

  • awayAuda Riga1:1
  • awayDaugavpils2:1
  • homeLiepaja0:0
  • awayOgre United3:0
  • homeRiga3:3

FS Jelgava

  • homeRiga0:1
  • awayGrobina0:0
  • homeSuper Nova0:1
  • awayTukums4:1
  • awayOgre United3:2

Head to head

  • 07/20/26Virsliga1:0
  • 05/21/26Virsliga4:0
  • 04/08/26Virsliga1:0
  • 09/13/25Virsliga1:4
  • 06/26/25Virsliga1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1RFS30235271:2274
2Riga31227286:3073
3Auda Riga31187649:3061
4Liepaja311271241:4343
5Daugavpils311091235:3539
6Super Nova301051529:4035
7FS Jelgava31881532:4932
8Grobina315111521:5226
9Tukums31591744:6124

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.