Radnik Surdulica — Radnicki Nis, SuperLiga

Serbia, SuperLigaOctober 17 at 12:00 AM

Radnik Surdulica

1.9DDDWL

—

Radnicki Nis

1.5LWLDL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

51%26%23%

Radnik Surdulica51%Draw26%Radnicki Nis23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Radnik Surdulica51%1.96—

XDraw26%3.81—

2Radnicki Nis23%4.42—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.37

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRadnik SurdulicaRadnicki NisCombined

Goals scored1.500.672.17

Conceded1.831.173.00

Corners8.48.48.4

Cards3.23.66.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Radnik SurdulicaRadnicki Nis

FK Radnik Surdulica 51%, FK Radnički Niš 23%. The safest is “FK Radnik Surdulica or draw” at 76%.

FK Radnik Surdulica 51%Draw 26%FK Radnički Niš 23%

1st half

45 · 36 · 19

2nd half

31 · 39 · 30

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 6.5

70%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context