All matches

Panevezys — TransINVEST, A Lyga

Lithuania, A Lyga

Panevezys
1.6LWWWL
—
TransINVEST
1.9WWLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
34%26%39%
Panevezys34%Draw26%TransINVEST39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Panevezys34%2.93—
XDraw26%3.80—
2TransINVEST39%2.53—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.26

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPanevezysTransINVESTCombined
Goals scored1.001.172.17
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners8.07.37.7
Cards1.02.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

PanevezysTransINVEST

FK Panevėžys 34%, FK TransINVEST Vilnius 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

FK Panevėžys 34%Draw 26%FK TransINVEST Vilnius 39%
1st half
32 · 38 · 30
2nd half
26 · 40 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Panevezys

  • homeKauno Zalgiris0:1
  • awayHegelmann3:1
  • awayBanga Gargzdai3:0
  • homeZalgiris2:0
  • awaySuduva Marijampole0:2

TransINVEST

  • homeZalgiris3:0
  • awayBanga Gargzdai3:1
  • homeSuduva Marijampole1:2
  • homeSiauliai3:0
  • awayKauno Zalgiris1:1

Head to head

  • 08/10/26A Lyga2:0
  • 06/12/26A Lyga1:2
  • 04/12/26A Lyga2:1
  • 11/09/24A Lyga0:0
  • 10/01/24A Lyga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Kauno Zalgiris30169562:2157
2Suduva Marijampole301511447:2556
3TransINVEST30156951:3551
4Zalgiris301461044:3648
5Banga Gargzdai30138941:2847
6Dziugas Telsiai301281039:4044
7Panevezys291051431:4435
8Hegelmann304151131:4827
9Siauliai31491827:5921

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.