All matches

Panevezys — Banga Gargzdai, A Lyga

Lithuania, A Lyga

Panevezys
1.6LWWWL
—
Banga Gargzdai
1.8WLLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
37%27%36%
Panevezys37%Draw27%Banga Gargzdai36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Panevezys37%2.70—
XDraw27%3.72—
2Banga Gargzdai36%2.77—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPanevezysBanga GargzdaiCombined
Goals scored1.330.672.00
Conceded0.671.171.84
Corners10.49.810.1
Cards1.41.83.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

PanevezysBanga Gargzdai

FK Panevėžys 37%, FK Banga Gargždai 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

FK Panevėžys 37%Draw 27%FK Banga Gargždai 36%
1st half
34 · 38 · 28
2nd half
27 · 41 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Panevezys

  • homeKauno Zalgiris0:1
  • awayHegelmann3:1
  • awayBanga Gargzdai3:0
  • homeZalgiris2:0
  • awaySuduva Marijampole0:2

Banga Gargzdai

  • homeDziugas Telsiai2:0
  • homeTransINVEST1:3
  • homePanevezys0:3
  • homeKauno Zalgiris0:0
  • awayHegelmann1:1

Head to head

  • 09/03/26A Lyga3:0
  • 05/24/26A Lyga1:0
  • 03/21/26A Lyga1:0
  • 10/18/25A Lyga2:2
  • 08/20/25A Lyga1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3TransINVEST30156951:3551
4Zalgiris301461044:3648
5Banga Gargzdai30138941:2847
6Dziugas Telsiai301281039:4044
7Panevezys291051431:4435
8Hegelmann304151131:4827
9Siauliai31491827:5921

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.