Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.43
All matches
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FK Pakhtakor Tashkent — Neftchi Fargona, Uzbekistan Super League
Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan Super League
FK Pakhtakor Tashkent
WWWDD
Neftchi Fargona
DWWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%25%32%
FK Pakhtakor Tashkent43%Draw25%Neftchi Fargona32%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Pakhtakor Tashkent2.32—
XDraw3.97—
2Neftchi Fargona3.15—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFK Pakhtakor TashkentNeftchi FargonaCombined
Goals scored1.501.673.17
Conceded0.501.502.00
Corners8.314.411.3
Cards1.81.53.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FK Pakhtakor TashkentNeftchi Fargona
FK Pakhtakor Tashkent 43%, Neftchi Fargona 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
FK Pakhtakor Tashkent 43%Draw 25%Neftchi Fargona 32%
1st half
40 · 38 · 22
2nd half
24 · 33 · 42
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
FK Pakhtakor Tashkent
- awayMash'al Mubarek2:1
- awayFK AGMK3:1
- homeFK Andijan3:0
- awayPFK Dinamo Samarqand1:1
- homeTermez Surkhon0:0
Neftchi Fargona
- homeXorazm FK Urganch2:2
- awayFK Lokomotiv Tashkent1:0
- homeTermez Surkhon2:1
- awayFC Nasaf Qarshi2:6
- homeFK Sogdiana Jizak3:0
Head to head
- 04/09/26Uzbekistan Super League1:0
- 09/13/25Uzbekistan Super League2:1
- 04/19/25Uzbekistan Super League4:0
- 09/13/24Uzbekistan Super League0:0
- 07/01/24Uzbekistan Super League2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Neftchi Fargona23164352:1952
Neftchi Fargona23164352:19522FK Pakhtakor Tashkent22147139:2049
FK Pakhtakor Tashkent22147139:20493
FK Navbahor Namangan22135439:2144
FK Navbahor Namangan22135439:21444
FK Lokomotiv Tashkent22105736:2835
FK Lokomotiv Tashkent22105736:2835Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.