Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.71
No41%
ours 2.41
All matches
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Lokomotiv Moskva — Spartak Moscow, Russian Premier League
Russia, Russian Premier League
Lokomotiv Moskva
2.3DLWLL
Spartak Moscow
2.8WWLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
31%27%42%
Lokomotiv Moskva31%Draw27%Spartak Moscow42%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lokomotiv Moskva3.20—
XDraw3.72—
2Spartak Moscow2.39—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLokomotiv MoskvaSpartak MoscowCombined
Goals scored0.500.831.33
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners7.39.08.2
Cards3.72.05.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lokomotiv MoskvaSpartak Moscow
FK Lokomotiv Moskva 31%, FK Spartak Moskva 42%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FK Lokomotiv Moskva 31%Draw 27%FK Spartak Moskva 42%
1st half
34 · 35 · 31
2nd half
25 · 39 · 36
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lokomotiv Moskva
- homeKrylia Sovetov1:1
- awayZenit1:2
- awayBaltika Kaliningrad1:0
- homeDinamo Moskva0:1
- awayCSKA Moscow2:3
Spartak Moscow
- homeFakel Voronezh1:0
- homeRostov3:0
- awayDinamo Moskva1:2
- homeOrenburg1:1
- homeZenit2:0
Head to head
- 04/05/26Russian Premier League1:2
- 08/09/25Russian Premier League4:2
- 11/23/24Russian Premier League2:5
- 09/28/24Russian Premier League3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Krasnodar963014:721
Krasnodar963014:7212Spartak Moscow961216:719
Spartak Moscow961216:7193
CSKA Moscow954015:919
CSKA Moscow954015:9194
Dinamo Moskva961214:819
Dinamo Moskva961214:8195
Zenit960319:918
Zenit960319:9186
Rubin Kazan926112:1112
Rubin Kazan926112:11127
Makhachkala940515:1612
Makhachkala940515:16128
Baltika Kaliningrad932414:1211
Baltika Kaliningrad932414:12119
Krylia Sovetov925213:1411
Krylia Sovetov925213:141110
Akhmat Grozny924313:1310
Akhmat Grozny924313:131011
Orenburg91627:109
Orenburg91627:10912
Akron Togliatti915311:188
Akron Togliatti915311:18813
Rostov922510:178
Rostov922510:17814Lokomotiv Moskva91448:117
Lokomotiv Moskva91448:11715
Rodina Moskva912610:225
Rodina Moskva912610:22516
Fakel Voronezh90366:133
Fakel Voronezh90366:133Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.