All matches

Liepaja — Super Nova, Virsliga

Latvia, Virsliga

Liepaja
2.0DDDWL
—
Super Nova
1.2LLWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
54%24%21%
Liepaja54%Draw24%Super Nova21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Liepaja54%1.84—
XDraw24%4.09—
2Super Nova21%4.74—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLiepajaSuper NovaCombined
Goals scored0.330.000.33
Conceded0.330.330.66
Corners12.715.013.8
Cards2.32.04.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LiepajaSuper Nova

FK Liepāja 54%, SK Super Nova 21%. The safest is “FK Liepāja or draw” at 76%.

FK Liepāja 54%Draw 24%SK Super Nova 21%
1st half
44 · 36 · 20
2nd half
33 · 41 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Liepaja

  • homeDaugavpils0:0
  • awayOgre United2:2
  • awayRFS0:0
  • homeRiga3:2
  • awayAuda Riga0:1

Super Nova

  • awayOgre United0:1
  • homeRiga0:1
  • homeTukums1:0
  • awayFS Jelgava1:0
  • awayAuda Riga1:1

Head to head

  • 08/09/26Virsliga2:1
  • 06/12/26Virsliga2:1
  • 04/23/26Virsliga2:1
  • 11/09/25Virsliga0:3
  • 08/25/25Virsliga0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Riga31227286:3073
3Auda Riga31187649:3061
4Liepaja311271241:4343
5Daugavpils311091235:3539
6Super Nova301051529:4035
7FS Jelgava31881532:4932
8Grobina315111521:5226

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.