All matches

Liepaja — FS Jelgava, Virsliga

Latvia, Virsliga

Liepaja
2.0DDDWL
—
FS Jelgava
0.9LDLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
54%24%22%
Liepaja54%Draw24%FS Jelgava22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Liepaja54%1.85—
XDraw24%4.11—
2FS Jelgava22%4.60—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLiepajaFS JelgavaCombined
Goals scored0.831.172.00
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners10.88.29.5
Cards2.61.84.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LiepajaFS Jelgava

FK Liepāja 54%, FS Jelgava 22%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

FK Liepāja 54%Draw 24%FS Jelgava 22%
1st half
41 · 36 · 23
2nd half
34 · 40 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Liepaja

  • homeDaugavpils0:0
  • awayOgre United2:2
  • awayRFS0:0
  • homeRiga3:2
  • awayAuda Riga0:1

FS Jelgava

  • homeRiga0:1
  • awayGrobina0:0
  • homeSuper Nova0:1
  • awayTukums4:1
  • awayOgre United3:2

Head to head

  • 07/26/26Virsliga2:0
  • 05/26/26Virsliga1:1
  • 04/12/26Virsliga1:1
  • 10/25/25Virsliga2:2
  • 08/02/25Virsliga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Riga31227286:3073
3Auda Riga31187649:3061
4Liepaja311271241:4343
5Daugavpils311091235:3539
6Super Nova301051529:4035
7FS Jelgava31881532:4932
8Grobina315111521:5226
9Tukums31591744:6124

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.