All matches

Liepaja — Tukums, Virsliga

Latvia, Virsliga

Liepaja
2.0DDDWL
—
Tukums
0.7DLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
61%22%17%
Liepaja61%Draw22%Tukums17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Liepaja61%1.64—
XDraw22%4.50—
2Tukums17%5.92—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69

No41%

ours 2.45

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLiepajaTukumsCombined
Goals scored0.830.671.50
Conceded0.671.171.84
Corners12.39.010.6
Cards2.52.85.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LiepajaTukums

FK Liepāja 61%, FK Tukums 2000 17%. The safest is “FK Liepāja or draw” at 78%.

FK Liepāja 61%Draw 22%FK Tukums 2000 17%
1st half
44 · 33 · 22
2nd half
37 · 38 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Liepaja

  • homeDaugavpils0:0
  • awayOgre United2:2
  • awayRFS0:0
  • homeRiga3:2
  • awayAuda Riga0:1

Tukums

  • homeGrobina1:1
  • awaySuper Nova0:1
  • homeOgre United2:1
  • homeFS Jelgava1:4
  • awayAuda Riga0:3

Head to head

  • 08/02/26Virsliga1:2
  • 05/30/26Virsliga3:0
  • 04/17/26Virsliga2:2
  • 09/14/25Virsliga4:1
  • 06/25/25Virsliga3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Riga31227286:3073
3Auda Riga31187649:3061
4Liepaja311271241:4343
5Daugavpils311091235:3539
6Super Nova301051529:4035
7FS Jelgava31881532:4932
8Grobina315111521:5226
9Tukums31591744:6124
10Ogre United31462130:7618

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.